用广角图象同时测量针叶树冠层叶角分布和叶面积指数的方法研究(英文)     

《遥感学报》1997,(Z1)

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淮河洪峰与致洪暴雨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李国杰  张业雯  徐东明  马红  周晓林 《大气科学》1997,21(1):111-117

本文从气象与水文角度， 首先研究淮河关键地段（王家坝）水位变化规律和洪峰出现的特征， 并从数理统计理论上对超定量出现次数和洪峰数值进行了随机变量的独立性检验， 然后求出淮河洪峰遵从的概率分布， 并定性和定量地给出超定量大小与超定量历时关系。最后， 结合多年气象资料分析， 指出洪峰出现与淮河致洪暴雨有密切关系。  相似文献   

天山泥石流灾害的形成条件和过程特点   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

熊黑钢  刘耕年 《地理科学》1997,17(3):243-247

泥石流是天山主要自然灾害之一， 天山泥石流按触发因素可以分为暴雨型泥石流和冰川型泥石流两类。目前天山泥石流主要对效能运输造成灾害在部分地点对厂矿企业和居民点造成灾害，天山泥石流的形成和发生有其特点，掌握其形条件和过程特点有利于减轻自然灾害。  相似文献   

The l:200,000-scale map of the near-surface mineral resources of the Federal Republic of Germany     

Walter Lorenz 《Natural Resources Research》1997,6(1):5-10

For those who deal with aspects of regional planning that are affected by the extraction of near-surface mineral resources, a simple map that shows the distribution of these resources accompanied by explanatory notes is essential; a preliminary 1:1 million-scale map was published in 1982. The Geological Surveys of the Federal States of Germany, in conjunction with the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, are compiling a series of maps that will cover the country at a scale of 1:200,000. When completed by the end of the next decade, this set of maps will consist of 57 sheets, each of which will be accompanied by explanatory notes. By the end of 1995, 17 sheets had been published BGR reports on the status of a Federal mineral-resource mapping program.  相似文献   

古潜山火成岩裂缝带划分与孔隙度计算   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李瑞  李能根 《物探化探计算技术》1996,18(2):167-170

针对火成岩岩性成分复杂，常规测井难以正确划分岩性，严重阻碍了储层参数的定量计算。本文提出模糊聚类划分岩性，采用综合概率法与混合体积模型计算裂缝孔隙度、有效孔隙度等参数。其测井解释结果与井壁取心和地质描述资料对照，完全吻合。  相似文献   

Geohydrological models and earthquake effects at Yucca Mountain, Nevada     

J. B. Davies  Charles B. Archambeau 《Environmental Geology》1997,32(1):23-35

 Yucca Mountain, the proposed site for the high-level nuclear waste repository, is located just south of where the present water table begins a sharp rise in elevation. This large hydraulic gradient is a regional feature that extends for over 100 km. Yucca Mountain and its vicinity are underlain by faulted and fractured tuffs with hydraulic conductivities controlled by flow through the fractures. Close to and parallel with the region of large hydraulic gradient, and surrounding the core of the Timber Mountain Caldera, there is a 10- to 20-km-wide zone containing few faults and thus, most likely, few open fractures. Consequently, this zone should have a relatively low hydraulic conductivity, and this inference is supported by the available conductivity measurements in wells near the large hydraulic gradient. Also, slug injection tests indicate significantly higher pressures for fracture opening in wells located near the large hydraulic gradient compared to the opening pressures in wells further to the south, hence implying that lower extensional stresses prevail to the north with consequently fewer open fractures there. Analytical and numerical modeling shows that such a boundary between media of high and low conductivity can produce the observed, large hydraulic gradient, with the high conductivity medium having a lower elevation than the water table. Further, as fractures can close due to tectonic activity, the conductivity of the Yucca Mountain tuffs can be reduced to a value near that for the hydraulic barrier due to strain release by a moderate earthquake. Under these conditions, simulations show that the elevation of the steady-state water table could rise between 150 and 250 m at the repository site. This elevation rise is due to the projected shift in the location of the large hydraulic gradient to the south in response to a moderate earthquake, near magnitude 6, along one of the major normal faults adjacent to Yucca Mountain. As the proposed repository would only be 200–400 m above the present water table, this predicted rise in the water table indicates a potential hazard involving water intrusion. Received: 7 June 1996 / Accepted: 19 November 1996  相似文献   

地球物理反问题中的随机反演理论     

周竹生  陆江南 《物探化探计算技术》1997,19(4):289-297

本文从最大后验概率密度观点出发，在数据噪音向量和待求模型向量为具有零均值的独立高斯随机过程的假设前提下，建立起了随机反演的非线性系统方程；给出了模型方差估计的函数表达式，并在文章最后，证明了反演解的稀疏性，即解释了随机反演的输出解的高分辨率特征。文章在最小二乘反演方法的基础上，发展并完善了随机反演方法的理论基础；揭示了随机反演方法与最小二乘反演方法之间的本质区别；阐述了随机反演方法的优越性，并指出了其广阔的应用前景。  相似文献   

城市地震影响特征研究   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

潘华  赵凤新  高孟潭 《地震学报》2004,26(2):203-210

首先根据历史地震目录，计算了我国34个省会城市所受到的历史地震影响. 这些城市的地震影响烈度分布特征表明，约53%的省会城市没有遭受过Ⅵ度以上的历史地震影响，遭受过Ⅶ~Ⅸ度影响的城市有44%；大部分城市Ⅵ度地震影响的发生频次均高于Ⅵ度以上地震影响；不同城市最大发生频次的地震影响烈度也不同. 为此，在确定城市地震防御烈度时，需综合考虑最大影响烈度和最频影响烈度. 本文还考虑到历史地震记录的不完备性，以福建省69个县级以上城市为研究对象，采用模拟地震目录的方法来研究城市地震影响的特征. 结果表明，不同超越概率水平下城市地震影响烈度在不同城市之间表现出较大变化，以50年超越概率2%作为城市特征地震影响烈度，可以作为城市地震防御烈度确定的依据，并据此对城市未来地震影响进行合理的描述.   相似文献   

砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

余跃心 《岩土力学》2004,25(5):803-807

在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上，利用液化概率的对数回归方程，讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明，我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大，对于烈度 Ⅶ 度，规范法的液化概率在0.17～0.42间，小于简化法概率0.36～0.43，偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地，规范法的液化概率高达0.65～0.70，远远高于简化法的液化概率，安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价，规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高，特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。  相似文献   

淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

钱名开徐时进  王善序王嘉涛 《水文》2004,24(2):23-25

应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。  相似文献